The estimated annual loss of productivity due to cancer deaths is the equivalent of approximately 1 percent of the 2007 U.S. gross domestic product, according to a new study published online December 9 in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute (JNCI). When the productivity costs associated with caregiving for cancer patients and household activities are factored in, the estimate nearly doubles.

Using a model based on a "human capital approach," which factors in the value of lost years of work due to premature mortality, Dr. Cathy J. Bradley and colleagues from Virginia Commonwealth University, the Massey Cancer Center, and NCI estimated that the total productivity cost in 2000 due to cancer mortality was $115.8 billion. Based on current mortality rates, that figure will jump to $147.6 billion by 2020. Incorporating caregiving expenses and household duties into the model raised the cost estimates of cancer mortality to $232.4 billion in 2000 and to $308 billion in 2020.

The authors also determined that, starting in 2010, reducing cancer mortality by 1 percent for the six cancers most costly in terms of lost productivity due to death - colorectal, breast, pancreatic, leukemia, brain, and lung (which had the highest cost for lost productivity) - would reduce the economic burden by approximately $814 million annually.

A companion study in the same issue of JNCI, led by NCI's Dr. Robin Yabroff from the Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences' Health Services and Economics Branch, used a different method to assess the economic impact of death from cancer: the "willingness-to-pay" approach, which uses a previously published value of people's willingness to pay for one additional year of life, $150,000.

Compared to estimates based on the human capital approach, estimates of the cost associated with cancer mortality from the "willingness-to-pay" model were dramatically higher, $960.7 billion in 2000 and nearly $1.5 trillion by 2020.

In an accompanying editorial, Dr. Scott D. Ramsey from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center noted limitations to the methodologies used in both studies. Nonetheless, he acknowledged the use of these estimates to aid policymakers in deciding research priorities and assessing current investments, as well as helping insurers with coverage decisions.