The number of cancer cases in the United States is expected to increase dramatically over the next 2 decades, particularly among older adults and minorities, according to a study published online last week in the Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO). Dr. Ben Smith of the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center and his colleagues used information from the U.S. Census Bureau and NCI's SEER database, which covers approximately 26 percent of the U.S. population, to project the number of cancer patients diagnosed through 2030 by various measures.

The total cancer incidence is projected to rise by about 45 percent, from 1.6 million in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2030, the study found. This will be driven largely by cancer diagnoses in growing populations of older Americans and minority groups. The study projects a 67 percent increase in cancer incidence among older adults, compared with an 11 percent increase for younger adults. A 99 percent increase is expected among minorities, compared with a 31 percent increase for whites.

Certain difficult-to-treat cancers, such as liver, stomach, pancreas, and lung, will likely be among those with the highest relative increases in incidence. Therefore, the study warns, unless substantial gains are made in the treatment and prevention of these diseases, particularly among the elderly and minorities, the number of cancer deaths could grow dramatically in the next 20 years.

A second article published online in JCO proposes a roadmap for addressing and overcoming disparities in cancer care. The authors of this policy statement, developed by the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), wrote that despite decades of investment and advances in cancer research, a "profound divide" exists between those with access to the fruits of this research and those without.

The paper outlines strategies for addressing health disparities, such as funding research on the quality of care provided to minority populations and boosting minority enrollment in clinical trials. The statement "sets the stage for the continuing activities by ASCO to address this very important problem," said ASCO president Dr. Richard L. Schilsky of the University of Chicago at a press briefing.